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Here is a global with national fertility rates. The fertility rate information is outdated as it shows China with 1.43 when it is actually 1.18. All of the national fertility rates have been falling and are about 20-40% lower than in this map.
The current fertility rate for Africa in 2023 is 4.155 births per woman, a 1.35% decline from 2022. The fertility rate for Africa in 2022 was 4.212 births per woman, a 1.31% decline from 2021.
Nigeria’s fertility rate has declined every year since 1979 yet the country has assumed a fixed growth rate for its now over 200 million population based on a controversial headcount done nearly two decades ago. From an average of 6.763 births per woman in 1978, fertility rate in Nigeria has fallen to 5.076 in 2023, according to data by research platform. Nigeria does not perform any census because the leaders do not want to have counts because of politics. Nigeria’s population size has always been subject to debate with many doubting the accuracy of not only the last count in 2006 but even previous ones dating back to the colonial era.
Politicians have an incentive to inflate the numbers because seats at the National Assembly and cash from the federal government are handed out to states based on population.
This is a big problem in estimating current and future Africa population and future global population. IF the world goes from 8 billion people today to 10 billion or 11 billion people by 2100, then all of the increase will be from Africa. Almost half of Africa is not even trying to count how many people they have.
Comparing administrative and survey data across 46 surveys in 21 African countries, researchers found a bias toward overreporting school enrollment growth in administrative data. The average change in enrollment is roughly one-third higher (3.1 percentage points) in administrative than survey data.
There have been reports that China overcounted its population by as many as 100 million people.
Brian Wang is a Futurist Thought Leader and a popular Science blogger with 1 million readers per month. His blog Nextbigfuture.com is ranked #1 Science News Blog. It covers many disruptive technology and trends including Space, Robotics, Artificial Intelligence, Medicine, Anti-aging Biotechnology, and Nanotechnology.
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